Economic Inequality and Urban Violence

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/neighborhoods/2013/10/how-chicago-points-growing-inequality-urban-violence/7103

Chicago Skyline
commons.wikipedia.org

Hello Everyone:

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Aerial view of Chicago's South Side
shutterstock.com

Gun violence is a particularly notorious in the city of Chicago.  A recent shooting in the South Side injured thirteen people, including a three-year old girl made national headlines.  Other similar incidents over the same weekend injured ten more people.  This leaves the impression that the "City of Broad Shoulders" is under armed assault.  The reality is that it's not the whole city, rather certain neighborhoods.  Violence follows segregation-concentrated in particular communities defined by income and race.  Daniel Hertz, a graduate student at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, has been studying the distribution of violence in Chicago.  In particular, Mr. Hertz examines how the distribution rover the past twenty years.  He recently sat down for an interview with Noah Berlatsky for an article, "How Chicago Points to a Growing Inequality of Urban Violence," published in Atlantic Cities October 3, 2013, to discuss his findings on geography and urban violence.

Lake Michigan
us-pictures.com

The first question posed by Mr. Berlatsky, "Is Chicago becoming more dangerous?"  According to Daniel Hertz, "answer really depends on where you are, and also who you are."  Mr. Hertz goes on to say that depending on your gender, ethnicity, age, or race, the chances of being a crime victim are completely different.  That being said, Mr. Hertz believes that impossible to cull any definitive data about whether Chicago is getting more dangerous.  The overall crime statistic have gone down over the past two decades and they're down in most neighborhoods, including the really dangerous districts.  Specifically, if you study the most dangerous third of the city in its entirety, the numbers are down twenty percent.  To be fair, there some places where the numbers are up but not enough to justify labeling the city, as a whole, a more dangerous place than it was ten or twenty years ago.  Homicide is down by approximately forty-five percent overall from the period between 1990 and 1993 and 2007 to 2011.

"Concrete Beach"
epa.gov

Regarding the question of how the inequality of violence has changed, Mr. Hertz states, "It's always been unequal.  Everybody who live in Chicago or knows anything about Chicago knows that there's a big gap in the many indicators of quality of life, broadly speaking between richer neighborhoods on the North Side and poorer neighborhoods on the South and West side, and has been for a very long time."  The statement could also characterize places like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.  Mr. Hertz goes on to say that the gap, in context to violent crime, has gotten progressively worse.  For example, in the early nineties, the most dangerous part of the city had six times as many homicides as the safest third of the city.  Presently, that number has more than doubled to fifteen.  The opportunity costs of a person's chance of being a crime victim is greater if you live or work in a violent neighborhood than it was twenty years ago.  Really, I would not have guessed this.

Grant Park
en.wikipedia.org

Why is inequality of violence a problem?  The number reveal that fewer people are being shot or killed, which is obviously a good thing.  However, there is data to suggest that people with the resources leave the communities that relatively more violent than others.  Of course, businesses don't open in violent areas.  Thus when the schism grows, those on the violent side of the line are going to lose their middle class and their business so the penalty for being poor gets bigger.  This is especially a concern not only Chicago but in other major metropolitan  areas around the country.  In addition to the lack of employment opportunities, there also are worse schools and a myriad of other challenges that need to be dealt with if you're poor.  Further if you can only afford to live in the poorer neighborhoods, safety becomes another challenge to add to the long list of challenges a person needs to to deal with.

"The Loop"
kapowevents.com

Is the inequality of violence particular to Chicago.  Here, Daniel Hertz points to a flaw in his study, he hasn't done a comparative analysis between Chicago and other cities.  His reasoning is that the data for Chicago was more available.  Mr. Hertz used the Chicago Police Department's annual report, which break down the number of homicides per police precinct going back to the eighties, through 2011, which he found online.  Apparently similar was not quite as available in other cities.  Mr. Hertz speculates that a similar situation is occurring in other cities.  Based on his empirical research, Mr. Hertz cites studies done by other people who found a that economic segregation has increased in other places, which Mr. Hertz suspects is a factor in the increased violence.

Why has economic segregation been allowed to happen?  One reason is zoning codes.  Mr. Hertz points to economists Ed Glasner, a market-oriented professor at Harvard and Paul Krugman less market-oriented, who target zoning codes, in particular density caps in high demand areas.  Places such as Lincoln Park on the North Side of Chicago, are very high in demand, with great amenities and have become very desirable over the last ten years.  Normally, the housing market would dictate building more housing in order to create more of a balance between supply and demand, so prices wouldn't go through the roof.  However, because of zoning codes and neighbors throwing a fit over the sudden blossoming of high-rises, they can't.  Thus, supply is kept at bay and prices go stratospheric.  This situation is true in every part of the country.  Urban neighborhoods have become desirable locations-making Jane Jacobs do a happy dance in her grave.  Therefore, the opportunity for imbalance has become greater because demand has increased.  So, all things being equal, when you have an increase in income inequality, the result is an increase in economic segregation.

Finally, does the increase in the inequality of violence make it more difficult to address violence in the communities where it occurs?  In answering this question, Mr. Hertz reveals another gap in his research.  Mr. Hertz admits to not interviewing police officers and social service organizations that deal with this issues.  He postulates that if you have a higher percentage of violence in a more concentrated area, it would be easier to flood the area with police, if the manpower was available.  In a rather oddly enthusiastic manner, Mr. Hertz express interest in seeing the dynamic panic over crime, widespread over the city, despite the fact that the North Side is relatively safe, in terms of lethal crimes.  He points out the reason for this area being an island of relative safety is that North Side resident still demand from their aldermen more and more police presence because the resident believe they aren't safe. Therefore, it maybe harder, from a resource perspective, that city should pile on the police presence. To put it more succinctly, someone gets killed on the South Side and the residents in the more affluent areas demand more police.  Makes sense right?

While Daniel Hertz presents some interesting finding from his research, he still has further to go.  I suspect that his is a work in progress that will ultimately lead to a dissertation or other scholarly treatise.  I think Mr. Hertz's research would greatly benefit from a serious comparative analysis.  How does Chicago's statistics on crime inequality measure against New York or Dallas, for example.  His research would also benefit from interviewing police officers, social workers, and the residents of the South Side to get anecdotal information.  Overall, the interview left something to be desired as far as any real substantive information.  However, as I said, it is a work in progress and it'll be interesting to see where it leads.

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